WHITHER AXIS SHIFT: A PERSPECTIVE FROM TURKEY'S FOREIGN TRADE
Mehmet BABACAN
SETA Policy Report, No. 4, November 2010
Download the Report: http://www.setav.org/Ups/dosya/53018.pdf
The ongoing debate on Turkey's so-called axis shift could well be analyzed
through a foreign trade perspective. Therefore, our analysis will discuss
Turkey's changing direction, if any, in terms of its trade orientation, i.e.
trading partners, relative trade shares and changes in import-export volumes,
and domestic structural changes in trading goods with regards to the global
shifts in world trade.
Foreign trade by itself does not possess full explanatory power in defining
country-wide, regional or global economic orientation while international
investments and financial movements have equally significant importance in that
regard. Still, it accounts for an important portion of defining a country's
economic performance and orientation. Whether measured by total trade volume or
exports only, the role of foreign trade in growth is evident for many countries.
Changing patterns or direction in Turkey's exports and imports could therefore
serve as a well-qualified parameter in order to assess the so-called shift in
the country's orientation.
With that regards, a more diversified trading pattern both in terms of goods and
destinations is also elusive for an open economy. The report underlines the fact
that Turkish trade sector has maintained its long-standing direction towards the
major European Union (EU) member countries with only minor setbacks while new
dimensions in bilateral trade have emerged not only due to the changing foreign
policy considerations in Turkey but also the turn of the tide in global economy
within the last decade. Several indicators such as the worldwide expansion of
Turkish Airlines operations or the visa-free travel to numerous countries which
have connected new Turkish business elite to the rest of the world under the
Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) term depict the new face of Turkey's
foreign trade policy clearly. All in all, the report argues that Turkey's trade
partners are subject to change as the whole global economy shifts, i.e. to the
East.
In the first section, a brief introduction to modern Turkey's foreign trade in a
historical perspective will be provided. The second section will analyze the
changing structure in the country's foreign policy with special reference to
foreign trade in the last decade, particularly during the AK Party's ruling term
(2002-2010), regarding the aforementioned dimensions. Third section will discuss
the scope of regional and worldwide changes in trade patterns and analyze the
recent shift in Turkey's trade orientation under the light of Asian economic and
political rise in early 21st century.
***
Mehmet Babacan is a PhD Candidate at Marmara University, Department of Economics
and graduate research assistant at Istanbul Commerce University's Department of
International Relations. Babacan completed his master's degree at Clemson
University, John E. Walker Department of Economics and his bachelor's degree at
Marmara University. Babacan's doctoral research focuses on the interplay between
economic and political institutions and international trade. Among his research
interests are business interest groups and growth; international trade and
growth; political economy of trade; and supervision of public goods and
endowments in the history of Islam and the West.
***
Download the Report: http://www.setav.org/Ups/dosya/53018.pdf
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